Calculating and Updating Forecasts
Forecasts are calculated in the Cost worksheet based on forecast methods applied to control elements.
You may need to use the scroll bar at the bottom of the table data grid to get to the relevant forecast fields in your cost worksheet.
Changes to forecast options and defaults can be made at the organization data, project data and at the control account level. Keep in mind that Organization level settings will cascade down to all new projects and project level settings.
Project options define whether forecasts can be edited and adjusted manually, or if project changes are required in order to manually adjust the forecasts.
Understanding forecast calculations
In the following table:
- Affected by Productivity - means the selected ETC setting (i.e. ETC2, EAC2, EAC3) is affected by the productivity calculations in Cost, there's 3, depending on the option: Productivity, CPI, SPI.
- Edits - means the value in the ETC or EAC column can be manually edited or is automatically calculated.
| Estimate to Complete | Description | Affected by Productivity | Edits |
|---|---|---|---|
| ETC 1: FCC = User controlled value + (automated system adjustments) | User enters ETC in control elements and forecast is calculated as ETC + commitments. ETC is automatically reduced as commitments are made | Manual | |
| ETC 2: FCC = Efficiency Factor x ( Current Budget - Earned Value) | ETC = Remaining effort x productivity | Yes | Change Management |
| ETC 3: FCC = Current Budget - All Commitments | ETC = Current Budget - Commitments (with negative ETC if commitments exceed budget) | Change Management | |
| ETC 4: Manually entered value | User enters ETC in control elements and forecast is calculated as ETC + commitments ETC is not automatically reduced as commitments are made | Manual | |
| Estimate to Complete | Description | Affected by Productivity | Edits |
| EAC 1: User controlled value + (automated system adjustments) | User enters forecast in control elements and ETC is calculated as EAC – commitments ETC is automatically adjusted down as commitments are made | Manual | |
| EAC 2: Current Budget / CPI | Forecast = current budget divided by productivity e.g. 100,000 / 0.8 = 125,000 | Yes | Change Management |
| EAC 3: All Actuals + ( Current Budget - Earned to Date) | Forecast = current budget divided by productivity e.g. 100,000 / 0.8 = 125,000 | Yes | Change Management |
| EAC 4: FFC = All Actuals + ( Current Budget - Earned to Date)/CPI x SPI | As above / CPI X SPI CPI could be 1.5 (productive) SPI could be 0.8 (behind schedule) 1.5 * 0.7 = 1.05 175,000 / 1.05 = 166,667 | Manual | |
| EAC 5: FFC = Manually entered value | User enters in manual forecast in control elements and ETC is calculated from that (FAC - commitments), ETC is NOT automatically adjusted down as commitments are made | Manual |
Selecting different forecast methods
The forecast method selected at the control element level determines which method is used. Changing the control account or project, after the control element is created, will not override the control element setting.
- Under Control Elements on the Cost Worksheet, find the Forecast Method column.
- Change the selected method to the desired option.
Available forecast options
Note FCC and FFC used in Australia in place of ETC, EAC.
Manually updating forecasts
If the project settings allow changes to be entered manually, you can edit the forecasts in the cost worksheet against each control element.
Note: you cannot manually update control element forecast data unless this is authorized in the change management settings.
The selected forecast method will determine which forecast column you are able to edit.
- Under Control Elements on the Cost Worksheet, scroll across to the forecast column.
- Edit/change the value as required.
Entering and updating forecast changes
- In Cost Management under the cost menu click Changes.
- Click the Add button and complete the change details.
- Click Add Change.
- Under the Change Breakdown window, click the Add button.
- Select the required Control Accounts to include in the change.
- Select the Control Element for each Control Account.
- Enter the change amount in each relevant budget or forecast field.
- Change the status as appropriate to adjust the project forecasts.
Detailed instructions for using the Changes module are available in Managing Change in Cost